WEBVTT

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On today's AI briefing, we think the S1 shows a real business carrying financing risk.

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$16.3 billion in half-year revenue against an $80.7 billion net loss

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and $400 billion of compute obligations not counted as debt.

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This is the AI briefing for Thursday, October 29.

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I'm Michael.

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Like everything here, this briefing is written and read by AI from public sources.

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Today's stories are about the money behind AI.

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Anthropics S1 shows $16.3 billion in first-half revenue next to an $80.7 billion net loss,

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and Senator Warren wants answers on the risks it lists.

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Microsoft booked $10 billion from its OpenAI partnerships in a single quarter,

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while the amount OpenAI owes it keeps climbing.

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Alphabet's search growth slowed to 12%, with AI Mode cited as a cause,

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and Google is rolling AI Mode ads out globally anyway.

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And Warp Sciences came out of stealth with $215 million to build a robotics-driven chemistry lab

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in the U.S. mainstories first, then a few quick hits.

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Stephen's take on the top of the day.

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AI mode will be monetized increasingly over time.

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The combination of facts has value, and it is unlikely to be devalued to zero,

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unless accuracy and reliability in human validation becomes unnecessary, which is a possibility.

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The first story is an update on one we've been following since last week,

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Anthropik's filing to list on NASDAQ.

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The S-1 reports $16.3 billion in revenue for the first half of 2026.

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That's up $15.1 billion year over year.

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BetaKit points to the other side of the ledger.

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There's an $80.7 billion net loss for the half,

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and $400 billion in future compute obligations that aren't counted as debt.

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And Senator Warren is now demanding answers on the existential risks the filing describes.

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On the evidence, these figures remain unverified.

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Any claim that Anthropic is profitable mixes up GAAP results with adjusted ones.

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Our view hasn't moved.

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This is a real business carrying financing risk.

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The open question is who funds that $400 billion if growth slows, and we lean cautious.

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Here's Stephen's take.

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With the pace of free good, it is hard to see how expensive better survives at this capex,

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mho. Increasingly, people are going to realize they are able to generate the value they need

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at a very low cost in software, services, and answers, and the very expensive models

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might become planners and coordinators in a much smaller value capture market.

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We have always thought that, and the power of free is amazing.

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From OneLab's books to a cloud providers

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Our second story is Microsoft's latest quarter and what it shows about OpenAI

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TechCrunch reports that Microsoft brought in $92.3 billion in revenue for its fourth quarter of 2026

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That's growth of 19% year over year

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Azure accounted for $33.2 billion of it

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The striking line is OpenAI

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Microsoft booked $10 billion from its OpenAI partnerships, nearly 11% of total revenue.

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Over the same period, receivables from OpenAI rose to $7.2 billion.

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Receivables are money billed but not yet collected.

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So how solid is this?

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The headline figures can be checked against Microsoft's filings.

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The split is not confirmed.

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We don't know how much of the Azure number comes from OpenAI revenue sharing and how much from other customers.

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This is exactly the pattern we watch for.

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A cloud provider books $10 billion a quarter from one AI lab, while what that lab owes it keeps rising.

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In our view, that unconfirmed split between Azure and OpenAI decides how much of this growth is circular.

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There's a smaller version of the same question for early-stage companies.

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Some infrastructure startups count AI Labs as their biggest customers.

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For them, receivables growth like this makes payment terms and days outstanding a fair diligence point.

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The market reads it more kindly.

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Microsoft grew 19% for a tenth consecutive record quarter.

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On that reading, OpenAI is simply a large and growing account, and receivables rising alongside revenue is normal for a customer scaling that fast.

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Here's Stephen's take, Round and Round.

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The third story stays with big tech earnings, and with what it costs to turn search into AI.

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Alphabet reported its third quarter, and TechMeme gathered the numbers.

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Free cash flow was negative $9.07 billion. Capital spending came in at $51.36 billion,

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below the $55.09 billion estimate. Alphabet kept its full-year capex forecast at $195 to $205

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billion. The more telling number is search. Search revenue grew 12% to $63.25 billion,

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A year earlier in the third quarter of 2025, that growth rate was 14.5%.

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The cause cited was lower monetization in AI mode.

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Meanwhile, TechCrunch and TechMeme both report that Google has expanded AI mode ads globally.

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This one holds up.

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CapEx is high but under the estimate, and the slowdown is attributed directly to AI mode earning less.

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The global ad rollout looks like a response to slower core growth.

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It hasn't yet been shown to offset the decline.

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Our view is that, for now, this cuts against the incumbent's turn to AI.

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Alphabet's own AI wedge is cited as slowing its search growth.

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The global AI mode ad rollout is the test.

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There's a practical angle for startups that find customers through Google search ads.

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Pricing may shift as these ads go global,

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so channel mix and the trend in cost per acquisition seem worth checking.

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The market reads the same facts differently. Slower search growth during a format shift can be the cost of moving users first and pricing later. AI mode ads have only now gone global, and CapEx came in below estimate.

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Here's Stephen's take. Again, incumbents are in a strong position and they have to adapt to survive, and Google is adapting. They are also good at monetization, so there's that. People always do a bad job of combining the parts of valuation together for alphabet.

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The fourth and last of the main stories moves from big tech spending to a startup's raise.

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Yesterday, the robot report covered warp sciences coming out of stealth with $215 million in funding.

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The plan is a U.S.-based chemistry CRO, a contract research organization that biotech's outsource lab work to.

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It combines chemists, robotics, and AI to test molecules faster.

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The pitch leans on Sovereign Biotech, with the BIOSECURE Act in the background.

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How well does it hold up?

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The raise and the service plan come from the company, and they're plausible.

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The speed and cost advantages are still aspirations, with no data yet.

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We think a U.S.-based CRO built on robotics is a credible wedge.

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It gives biotechs weighing the BIOSECURE Act a domestic option.

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What would decide it is per-molecule turnaround in cost, and neither has been disclosed.

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Those are the numbers we'd want to see before believing it beats existing CROs.

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For early-stage investors, a $215 million raise for a services business sets a high capital bar.

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Seed-stage lab automation companies may do better selling into operators like this than competing with them.

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Here's Steven's take. Advances in robots in parallel with advances in research is a powerful cycle in physical sciences. This is going to be an era of amazing advance.

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Two quick ones before we close. Reuters reports that the US DOJ has asked how NVIDIA's hugging

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face deal affects competition in AI. Antitrust enforcers are still probing NVIDIA's conduct.

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It matters because NVIDIA's dealmaking is now under active scrutiny. And Google DeepMind has

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launched Gemini 4 Carbon for cyber defenders through what Latent Space calls the Fairwind

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program it matters because Google is putting this model in the hands of

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selected defenders first not everyone on symbiotics 90.5% reliance on Walmart

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raises customer concentration risk here Stevens take they bought Walmart's

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automation division and thus it is unsurprising they look like Walmart's

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automation division right now one question worth asking this week what share of revenue comes from

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the largest customer and is that customer also an investor or supplier and one to watch what

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explains the gap between anthropics 10% adjusted operating margin and its 80.7 billion dollar net

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loss s1 amendments the gaap reconciliation or analyst breakdowns before pricing should settle

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it. That's the briefing. Stay with me. Right after this, Bella takes you through today's deep dive

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on Sweden's chatbot block is about contracts, not countries. You can also read it or listen

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to it on its own on the AI Briefing webpage, where you'll find the written edition in every

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past episode. The link is in the show notes. Thanks, Michael. This is the AI Briefing deep

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dive for Thursday, October 29. Sweden's chatbot block is about contracts, not countries.

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I'm Bella. Like the briefing, it is written and read by AI from public sources.

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On Monday, October 26, Sweden's government offices blocked chat GPT and clawed on staff

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work computers. This is the body that supports the prime minister's office and every ministry.

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Staff are being sent to Microsoft's co-pilot instead.

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Six days earlier, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security published an order

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removing DeepSeek from federal civilian systems.

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But the two side by side and the headline writes itself,

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Governments are walling off foreign AI.

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Is that true, though?

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The first reports we saw gave no reason for the Swedish move.

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The reporting since then, which traces back to Sveria's radio, does give a reason.

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and the reason is not where the chatbot comes from.

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So today's question is narrower and more useful.

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When a government shuts out an AI tool,

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is it doing so over data handling, security, or politics?

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And what does each of those grounds mean for a company trying to sell to the public sector?

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Start with what Sweden actually did.

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It blocked the web versions of ChatGPT and Claude, the sites you open in a browser.

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It did not ban the models.

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A limited number of staff can still reach both through Intric,

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a Stockholm platform for building AI assistance.

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Intric says its platform runs on servers in Sweden,

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with no need for foreign cloud firms.

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Copilot was approved because, in the government office's words,

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they had checked that tool and made it safer.

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And here's what makes it interesting.

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Microsoft has said Copilot will continue to be powered by OpenAI's latest models.

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Microsoft has also added anthropic models to Microsoft 365 Copilot.

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So the same model families can stay in the building while the consumer front door gets locked.

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An analogy helps.

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Think of a ministry that bans staff from emailing documents to their personal Gmail.

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Nobody reads that as a ban on Google.

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It's a rule about which channel has a signed contract, an audit trail,

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and an admin who can change the settings.

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Sweden's block works the same way.

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The digitalization director, Mikkel Wedderkranz, wrote on the staff intranet that using AI services

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without formal contracts can have consequences for information security.

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He added that they had seen several examples of problematic use,

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covering both what was typed in and how the answers were handled.

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The U.S. DeepSeek order works on a different principle.

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It was issued under the Federal Acquisition Supply Chain Security Act of 2018,

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a law that lets the government exclude a vendor it judges to be a supply chain risk.

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The issue there is who the vendor is.

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DHS argues that sensitive information from U.S. government users

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could be reachable by Chinese authorities under Chinese law.

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The order covers DeepSeek's own products and third-party products built on DeepSeek.

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No contract fixes that because the objection is to the vendor's legal home.

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So the two moves have a different mechanism.

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Sweden is saying, go through a contracted channel.

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The US is saying, not this vendor through any channel.

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Here's what is established.

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The Swedish bloc took effect October 26 and covers browser access across the government offices.

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That comes from Sveria's radio's reporting and the director's own internet note,

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which several outlets quote.

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Sweden's tax agency and the National Board of Institutional Care already had similar blocs.

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The enforcement authority was preparing its own decision.

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An internal review at the Swedish Transport Administration earlier,

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this year found roughly 10 AI services being used in what was described as a widespread and risky way.

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On the U.S. side, the record is primary.

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The order was dated July 24 and published in the Federal Register on October 20.

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It applies to civilian agencies such as Treasury, State, and Justice.

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The Congressional Research Service notes that the Defense Department and the Director of National Intelligence issued their own orders on September 8.

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DHS wrote that DeepSeq's models present multiple threat vectors.

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DeepSeq's own privacy policy says it stores users' personal data in the People's Republic of China.

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There's also a third data point.

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In February, the European Parliament's IT department turned off built-in AI features on lawmakers' devices.

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That covered Copilot along with ChatGPT and Claude.

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Its email said it could not guarantee the security of data uploaded to AI companies' servers.

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Now for what is claimed but not shown.

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We have no examples of what Swedish staff actually leaked, only that problems were seen.

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We don't know how many people are affected.

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We also don't know what Copilot settings were changed, or whether data stays in Sweden.

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On the US side, the order does not define what DeepSeek implementations means.

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Does a self-hosted copy of an open-weight deep-seek model count?

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What about a fine-tune of one?

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The order doesn't say, and the CRS summary doesn't settle it.

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One more caution.

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The idea that U.S. law lets American authorities demand chatbot user data

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was TechCrunch's framing of the parliament's story.

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The parliament's own email didn't say it, so the evidence is lopsided.

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The contract and data handling reading for Sweden is well supported.

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A political reading is something we'd be inferring,

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not something anyone in Sweden stated.

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Each reading starts from the same facts.

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The AGI forward reading focuses on cost.

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If frontier models keep improving fast,

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a ministry that limits staff to one approved assistant gives up capability every quarter.

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On that view, blocks like this push usage into shadow AI on personal phones,

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which is exactly the leak they were meant to stop.

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the a realist reading says this is ordinary it governance catching up an audit found about 10

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unmanaged services the organization then picked one under contract and blocked the rest nothing

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about it depends on what the models can do the market reading points to who won microsoft already

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had the enterprise agreement the admin controls and the security review on file it ended up as

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the only approved tool while serving open ai's models distribution and contracts beat model

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quality here, and the incumbent that holds the paperwork collects the seat.

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The policy reading has two layers.

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In Europe, data sovereignty is a rising theme, and Intric's pitch of Swedish

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servers with no foreign cloud is aimed straight at it.

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In the US, the DeepSeek order is explicitly about the vendor's country.

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China's foreign ministry called it politicizing technology and trade issues.

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Even so, the Swedish move doesn't support a reading of Europe banning

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american ai the european parliament blocked an american incumbent too sweden kept one for now

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the shared thread is controlled data flows not who owns the vendor

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our read is that this is a pattern but mostly not the one the headline suggests

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two gates are forming the first and most common is the contract is there a data processing agreement

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admin control and an audit trail any vendor can clear that gate in principle though incumbents

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already on the approved list have a head start measured in years the second gate is origin so

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far it applies to chinese vendors in the us and it can't be cleared with paperwork for builders

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that means public sector sales depend less on which model you use and more on the channel you

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sell through a startup offering a thin wrapper over a consumer chatbot api is exposed to the first

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gate. A startup that runs on in-country infrastructure or sells through an approved

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platform may find this a tailwind. Intric is the local example. One diligence question worth

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exploring. If the company's main model provider were blocked for a given buyer tomorrow, how fast

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could it switch? And does its contract with that buyer survive the switch? We'd also want to see

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whether its open-weight dependencies trace back to a vendor that has been excluded.

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Three things would settle this. First, whether OpenAI or Anthropics sign formal agreements with

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Swedish government bodies, and whether the blocks then lift. If they do, it was about contracts.

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If they don't, the sovereignty reading gains ground. The enforcement authority's pending

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decision is the next data point. Second, how DHS treats self-hosted and fine-tuned

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deep seek models that will show up in the exceptions agencies request and in any guidance

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clarifying deep seek implementations third whether any european body excludes a u.s vendor on origin

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grounds rather than contract grounds nobody has done that yet if one does the picture changes

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and we'd revise this view here's steven's take trust is not a security position it turns out

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FAAFO. The demand for state-approved or sovereign solutions will be determined by vendor trust, operator control, and the relative secrecy of not just the content, but the use of the harness, agents, tools, and the way in which this use is used to improve artifacts or models that are in the control of the payer users, government, companies, universities, or the control of the model or service provider.

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note this includes things above the frontier model and perhaps the frontier ends up commoditized

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completely in which case the third scaling law of learning above the model isolated from the

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overall frontier training and improving cycles becomes the defensible and secure layer this

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would bode very well for companies building above that's the deep dive and today's ai briefing

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Every source is linked in the show notes

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And the AI Briefing webpage has the written edition

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This deep dive in every past episode

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The Daily Briefing is back tomorrow
